In a supercritical branching random walk on R p , a Galton–Watson process with the additional feature that people have positions, let be the set of positions of the nth-generation people, scaled by the factor n –1. It is shown that when the process survives looks like a convex set for large n. An analogous result is established for an age-dependent branching process in which people also have positions. In certain cases an explicit formula for the asymptotic shape is given.

Branching processes $(Z_n)_{n \ge 0}$ in a varying environment generalize the Galton–Watson process, in that they allow time dependence of the offspring distribution. Our main results concern general criteria for almost sure extinction, square integrability of the martingale $(Z_n/\mathrm E[Z_n])_{n \ge 0}$, properties of the martingale limit W and a Yaglom-type result stating convergence to an exponential limit distribution of the suitably normalized population size $Z_n$, conditioned on the event $Z_n \gt 0$. The theorems generalize/unify diverse results from the literature and lead to a classification of the processes.

We consider a branching population where individuals have independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) life lengths (not necessarily exponential) and constant birth rates. We let N t denote the population size at time t. We further assume that all individuals, at their birth times, are equipped with independent exponential clocks with parameter δ. We are interested in the genealogical tree stopped at the first time T when one of these clocks rings. This question has applications in epidemiology, population genetics, ecology, and queueing theory. We show that, conditional on {T<∞}, the joint law of (N t , T, X (T)), where X (T) is the jumping contour process of the tree truncated at time T, is equal to that of (M, -I M , Y′ M ) conditional on {M≠0}. Here M+1 is the number of visits of 0, before some single, independent exponential clock e with parameter δ rings, by some specified Lévy process Y without negative jumps reflected below its supremum; I M is the infimum of the path Y M , which in turn is defined as Y killed at its last visit of 0 before e ; and Y′ M is the Vervaat transform of Y M . This identity yields an explanation for the geometric distribution of N T (see Kitaev (1993) and Trapman and Bootsma (2009)) and has numerous other applications. In particular, conditional on {N T =n}, and also on {N T =n,T<a}, the ages and residual lifetimes of the n alive individuals at time T are i.i.d. and independent of n. We provide explicit formulae for this distribution and give a more general application to outbreaks of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the hospital.

We consider a particle system in continuous time, a discrete population, with spatial motion, and nonlocal branching. The offspring's positions and their number may depend on the mother's position. Our setting captures, for instance, the processes indexed by a Galton–Watson tree. Using a size-biased auxiliary process for the empirical measure, we determine the asymptotic behaviour of the particle system. We also obtain a large population approximation as a weak solution of a growth-fragmentation equation. Several examples illustrate our results. The main one describes the behaviour of a mitosis model; the population is size structured. In this example, the sizes of the cells grow linearly and if a cell dies then it divides into two descendants.

This paper is based on works presented at the 2012 Applied Probability Trust Lecture in Sheffield; its main purpose is to survey the recent asymptotic results of Bertoin (2012a) and Bertoin and Uribe Bravo (2012b) about Bernoulli bond percolation on certain large random trees with logarithmic height. We also provide a general criterion for the existence of giant percolation clusters in large trees, which answers a question raised by David Croydon.

We derive the limit behaviour of the distribution tail of the global maximum of a critical Galton–Watson process and also of the expectations of partial maxima of the process, when the offspring law belongs to the domain of attraction of a stable law. Thus the Lindvall (1976) and Athreya (1988) results are extended to the infinite variance case. It is shown that in the general case these two asymptotics are closely related to each other, and the latter follows readily from the former. We also discuss a related problem from the theory of general branching processes.

In a Galton-Watson branching process that is not extinct by the nth generation and has at least two individuals, pick two individuals at random by simple random sampling without replacement. Trace their lines of descent back in time till they meet. Call that generation X n a pairwise coalescence time. Similarly, let Y n denote the coalescence time for the whole population of the nth generation conditioned on the event that it is not extinct. In this paper the distributions of X n and Y n , and their limit behaviors as n → ∞ are discussed for both the critical and subcritical cases.

We provide constructions of age-structured branching processes without or with immigration as pathwise-unique solutions to stochastic integral equations. A necessary and sufficient condition for the ergodicity of the model with immigration is also given.

We consider a threshold epidemic model on a clustered random graph model obtained from local transformations in an alternating branching process that approximates a bipartite graph. In other words, our epidemic model is such that an individual becomes infected as soon as the proportion of his/her infected neighbors exceeds the threshold q of the epidemic. In our random graph model, each individual can belong to several communities. The distributions for the community sizes and the number of communities an individual belongs to are arbitrary. We consider the case where the epidemic starts from a single individual, and we prove a phase transition (when the parameter q of the model varies) for the appearance of a cascade, i.e. when the epidemic can be propagated to an infinite part of the population. More precisely, we show that our epidemic is entirely described by a multi-type (and alternating) branching process, and then we apply Sevastyanov's theorem about the phase transition of multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. In addition, we compute the entries of the mean progeny matrix corresponding to the epidemic. The phase transition for the contagion is given in terms of the largest eigenvalue of this matrix.

A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the population as a measure-valued process and obtain its asymptotics as the population grows with the environmental carrying capacity. Thus, a deterministic approximation is given, in the form of a law of large numbers, as well as a central limit theorem. This general framework is then adapted to model sexual reproduction, with a special section on serial monogamic mating systems.