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Since the 2008 economic crisis, social service providers worldwide have reported funding cuts, while the need for some social services has been increasing. This paper examines the combined and longer-term effects of such divergent developments on the nonprofit social services sector. The empirical analysis uses Austrian administrative data on six subfields of the sector covering the years 2003–2017. We investigate significant changes in the trends of four growth indicators applying interrupted time series analysis. We find that the 2008 economic crisis is associated with persistently lower growth rates in Austria’s nonprofit social services sector. The magnitude of this dampening effect differs across subsectors. Additionally, our findings suggest an increase in market concentration. Hence, the study discloses a long-term scarring effect of the economic crisis on Austria’s social services sector, raising doubts on the sector’s future resilience.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted Saskatchewan, resulting in high per capita case counts and COVID-19-related deaths. While vaccination mandates have been a key strategy to control the pandemic, their impact in Saskatchewan remains poorly documented. This study assessed the effect of COVID-19 vaccine mandates on the incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Saskatchewan during the first year following vaccine rollout.
Methods
A single-group interrupted time series analysis with multiple intervention points was conducted using aggregated daily COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates as outcome variables. The models accounted for confounding effects of daily total vaccine doses administered and public health countermeasures, including the stringency index and economic support index, from April 1, 2020 to January 20, 2022. Average daily COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates were estimated for the pre-vaccine rollout period (April 1 to December 14, 2020), and the post-rollout period (December 15, 2020 to January 20, 2022). In addition, nine supplementary initiatives were introduced during the implementation phase. All estimated effects reflected cumulative changes in trend relative to the pre-vaccination period.
Results
Cumulatively, COVID-19 incidence increased faster than the pre-vaccination trend, likely driven by successive variant surges from wild-type to Omicron, while COVID-19–related deaths remained stable across the same period. The implementation of vaccine rollout, prioritization of vaccines for high-risk populations, and proof-of-vaccination policy were effective in reducing daily COVID-19 incidence and deaths in Saskatchewan. Economic support and an increased number of daily vaccine doses administered were also associated with an improved provincial COVID-19 response. Conversely, surges in COVID-19 incidence and deaths occurred following the introduction of the centralized virtual booking system and booster doses. These surges may reflect accessibility challenges, increased testing, emergence of immune-escape variants, relaxation of public health measures before achieving herd immunity, and waning immunity over time.
Conclusions
Economic support, policy measures, and vaccination efforts played important roles in managing public health crises, hence the need for an integrated approach to managing public health crises. However, temporary surges following certain interventions underscore the need for accessible, adaptable strategies that account for variant emergence, immunity waning and public adherence.
Meat-based food production has a detrimental impact on the environment and health. In response, Veganuary (an international non-profit organisation) encourages people to go vegan each January. We investigated the effects of a Veganuary campaign in workplace cafeterias which increased the availability and salience of plant-based products. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis on a large dataset from a UK catering company, which comprised 2,255,404 meals sold between 2016 and 2022, with Veganuary activity starting from 2019. Analysis indicated that Veganuary activity had a positive effect on sales of vegan products in 2020, 2021 and 2022, estimated at an initial increase of 86–113% in the proportion of weekly sales (relative to the baseline, depending on year). The effects of the 2020 and 2021 campaigns were still present – at approximately one third of their initial magnitude – one year following the campaigns. There was a positive effect on vegetarian products in 2019, 2021 and 2022; initial effects were smaller – 23–79% – due to higher levels of pre-campaign consumption. The effects of the 2019 and 2021 campaigns endured, with a small impact present after one year for 2019 and six months for 2021.
We explored long-term employment status and income before and after depression diagnosis among men and women and at different working ages in Taiwan.
Methods
Data from 2006 to 2019 were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Individuals with newly diagnosed depressive disorder aged 15 to 64 years during the study period were identified. An equal number of individuals without depression were matched for their demographic and clinical characteristics. Employment outcomes included employment status, which was categorized into employed or unemployed, and annual income. Based on the occupation categories and monthly insurance salary recorded in the Registry for Beneficiaries of the NHIRD, a subject was defined as unemployed if he or she differed from the income earner or the occupation category was unemployed. Monthly income was defined as zero for unemployed subjects and proxied as monthly insurance salary for others. Annual income was the sum of monthly income in each observation year.
Results
A total of 420,935 individuals with depressive disorder were included in the study, and an equal number of individuals with not diagnosed depression served as controls. Employment rate and income were lower in the depression group than in the control group before the year of diagnosis, with a difference of 5.7% in employment rate and USD 1,173 in annual income. This gap increased considerably after the year of diagnosis (7.3% in employment rate and USD 1,573 in annual incomes) and further widened in the subsequent years (8.1% in employment rate and USD 2,006 in annual incomes in the 5th following year). The drops in the employment rate and income caused by depression were more evident in men and older age groups than in women and younger age groups, respectively. However, the reduction in employment rate and income in the following years after the diagnosis was more considerable among younger age groups.
Conclusions
The effect of depression on employment status and income was significant during the year of diagnosis and continued afterwards. The effect on employment outcomes varied between genders and across all age groups.
To mitigate the known high transmission risk in day-care facilities for children aged 0–6 years, day-care staff were given priority for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in March 2021. This study assessed direct and indirect effects of early vaccination of day-care staff on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in daycares with the aim to provide a basis for the prioritisation of scarce vaccines in the future. Data came from statutory infectious disease notifications in educational institutions and from in-depth investigations by the district public health authorities. Using interrupted time series analyses, we measured the effect of mRNA-based vaccination of day-care staff on SARS-CoV-2 infections and transmission. Among 566 index cases from day-care centres, the mean number of secondary SARS-CoV-2 infections per index case dropped by −0.60 case per month after March 2021. The proportion of staff among all cases reported from daycares was around 60% in the pre-interruption phase and significantly decreased by 27 percentage points immediately in March 2021 and by further 6 percentage points each month in the post-interruption phase. Early vaccination of day-care staff reduced SARS-CoV-2 cases in the overall day-care setting and thus also protected unvaccinated children. This should inform future decisions on vaccination prioritisation.
Studying the effect of primary health care development when simultaneously implemented with health insurance schemes assesses effectiveness and use of health care services and gives us insight on how to develop such interventions in different countries.
Aim
To analyze the impact of health insurance and the family physician program on total hospitalizations, and the relation between avoidable hospitalizations and access to family physicians among the rural population in Iran.
Methods
We conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly hospitalization rates between the years of 2003 and 2014 to assess the immediate and gradual effects of these reforms on total hospitalization rates in the rural areas of Tehran province. In addition, we used a sample of 22 570 hospitalizations between 2006 and 2013 to develop a logistic regression model to measure the association between access to a family physician and avoidable hospitalizations.
Findings
ITS analysis showed that there was an immediate increase of about 1.96 hospitalizations per 1000 inhabitants (P<0.0001, CI=1.58, 2.34) hospitalization rates after the reforms. This was followed by a significant increase of about 0.089 per 1000 inhabitants (P<0.0001, CI=0.07, 0.1). Hospitalization increase continued up to four years after the policy implementation. Following that, hospitalization rates decreased among the rural population (a decrease of 0.066 per 1000, P<0.0001, CI=−0.084, −0.048). Studying the hospitalizations that occurred between 2006 and 2013 showed that there were 4106 avoidable hospitalizations from among a sample of 22 570 hospitalizations. Results of logistic regression models including gender, age and access to family physician variables showed that there was no statistical relation between access to a family physician and avoidable hospitalizations.
Conclusion
Reforms had access effect and caused increased hospital services uses in people with unmet needs. Also the reforms did not decrease avoidable hospitalizations, and therefore had no efficiency effect.
When 2017 Hurricane Harvey struck the coastline of Texas on August 25, 2017, it resulted in 88 fatalities and more than US $125 billion in damage to infrastructure. The floods associated with the storm created a toxic mix of chemicals, sewage and other biohazards, and over 6 million cubic meters of garbage in Houston alone. The level of biohazard exposure and injuries from trauma among persons residing in affected areas was widespread and likely contributed to increases in emergency department (ED) visits in Houston and cities receiving hurricane evacuees. We investigated medical surge resulting from these evacuations in Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex EDs.
Methods:
We used data sourced from the North Texas Syndromic Surveillance Region 2/3 in ESSENCE to investigate ED visit surge following the storm in DFW hospitals because this area received evacuees from the 60 counties with disaster declarations due to the storm. We used the interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to estimate the magnitude and duration of the ED surge. ITS was applied to all ED visits in DFW and visits made by patients residing in any of the 60 counties with disaster declarations due to the storm. The DFW metropolitan statistical area included 55 hospitals. Time series analyses examined data from March 1, 2017–January 6, 2018 with focus on the storm impact period, August 14–September 15, 2017. Data from before, during, and after the storm were visualized spatially and temporally to characterize magnitude, duration, and spatial variation of medical surge attributable to Hurricane Harvey.
Results:
During the study period overall, ED visits in the DFW area rose immediately by about 11% (95% CI: 9%, 13%), amounting to ~16 500 excess total visits before returning to the baseline on September 21, 2017. Visits by patients identified as residing in disaster declaration counties to DFW hospitals rose immediately by 127% (95% CI: 125%, 129%), amounting to 654 excess visits by September 29, 2017, when visits returned to the baseline. A spatial analysis revealed that evacuated patients were strongly clustered (Moran’s I = 0.35, P < 0.0001) among 5 of the counties with disaster declarations in the 11-day window during the storm surge.
Conclusions:
The observed increase in ED visits in DFW due to Hurricane Harvey and ensuing evacuation was significant. Anticipating medical surge following large-scale hurricanes is critical for community preparedness planning. Coordinated planning across stakeholders is necessary to safeguard the population and for a skillful response to medical surge needs. Plans that address hurricane response, in particular, should have contingencies for support beyond the expected disaster areas.
We analyzed the impact of opioid initiation on the prevalence of antipsychotic and benzodiazepine and related drug (BZDR) use among community-dwelling persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD).
Methods:
We utilized the register-based Medication use and Alzheimer's disease (MEDALZ) cohort for this study. We included all community-dwelling persons diagnosed with AD during 2010–2011 in Finland initiating opioid use (n = 3,327) and a matched cohort of persons not initiating opioids (n = 3,325). Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to compare the prevalence of antipsychotic and BZDR use in 30-day periods within six months before opioid initiation to 30-day periods six months later.
Results:
Before opioid initiation, prevalence of antipsychotic use among opioid initiators was 13.3%, 18.3% at opioid initiation, and 17.3% six months later. Prevalences of BZDR use were 27.1% six months prior, 28.9% at opioid initiation, and 26.9% six months later. After opioid initiation, antipsychotic and BZDR use declined by 0.3 percentage points (pps, 95% confidence interval 0.1–0.5) and 0.4 pps (0.2–0.7) per month, respectively, until the end of the follow-up. Compared to persons not initiating opioid use, opioid initiation immediately resulted in an increase in prevalence of 1.9 pps (0.9–2.8) for antipsychotics and of 1.6 pps (0.9–2.2) for BZDR use. However, in total there was a comparative decrease of 0.5 pps (0.3–0.8) per month for antipsychotics and of 0.4 pps (0.2–0.6) for BZDR use until the end of the follow-up.
Conclusion:
Our results suggest that opioid initiation may reduce antipsychotic and BZDR use among persons with AD.
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